Updated 12/24/18

A very tough week for stocks brought index values 9% below where they were at the beginning of the year. Select U.S. Index point changes for the week were: Dow (-1,655.14), S&P 500 (-183.37), and the Nasdaq (-577.67). The 10yr. treasury rate decreased -0.10 to 2.79%.

Last week:

Price declines for the week were the worst since 2008, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and also forecast two more increases for next year.

The off-and-on reports about whether the government would shutdown ended badly on Friday as a shutdown started with no immediate outlook for a quick resolution.

Housing data for November showed better than expected new construction activity and sales of existing homes.

After a small downward adjustment for consumer spending, third-quarter growth was revised slightly lower to a still very healthy +3.4%.

This week:

Developments regarding the outlook for China and U.S. trade relations will continue to be a "wild-card" for the future.

Some strategists will likely foresee the recent losses being recovered next year due to the forecast for continuing economic growth projected for 2019, still historically low interest rates, and a possible truce on further punitive trade actions with China.

The outlook for another interest rate increase will also likely be foreseen as being much more unlikely and dependent on a stock market recovery occurring during the first-half of next year.

Stock trading ends at 1pm on Monday Christmas Eve and bond trading ends at 2pm until Wednesday the 26th.

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Probability of Federal Reserve increasing interest rates at January 29 - 30 meeting:

by 0.25%
%
by 0.50%
%

Select Economic Data Releases

*Colored icon denotes a new data release.
Gross Domestic Product

The 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP was fractionally lower at +3.4% (after factoring in a slight decline in consumer spending) reflecting good growth.

Employment Data

November employment data showed ADP's private payroll hires at +179K for November and the government's November employment report showed a below consensus +155K gain.

Retail Data

November Retail Sales rose +0.2% masking a decent +0.5% gain when the sharp decline in gasoline sales is excluded.

Housing Data

October New Home Sales of 544K was lower than consensus showing continuing softness. October Existing Home Sales of 5.22M matched consensus with single family and condo sales showing gains. October Housing Starts of 1.228M was a little below expectations.

Leading Indicators

November Leading Indicators rose +0.2% beating expectations, with higher building permits and manufacturing levels offsetting lower stock prices.

Inflation

November inflation remained tame with Consumer Prices unchanged and Producer Prices rising +0.1%.